A soft open after Monday’s rebound
Dalal Street began Tuesday on a cautious note after Monday’s recovery. The Sensex opened 122 points lower at 73,484 and the Nifty slipped about 44 points to 22,709, with both down roughly 0.2%. Monday’s gains had left the Sensex at 73,607 and the Nifty at 22,753. IT was the main drag, with Infosys falling more than 2%, while cement and oil and gas also weakened. PSU banks, pharma and healthcare were the pockets of buying, and midcaps and smallcaps were firmer.
Realty was not among the sectors making sharp moves at the open. The sector comes into the session still bruised from last week. The Nifty Realty index was last confirmed near 800 on October 21, close to its October 8 closing low of 796.60 and far below its 52-week high of 974.50.
What is weighing on the sector
The sector’s biggest recent negative came from Godrej Properties. Its September-quarter profit fell 62% to ₹154 crore, against analyst estimates of about ₹405 crore, and bookings slipped 6% to ₹8,008 crore. The stock dropped nearly 5% on the day of the results. The picture was not all bad: collections rose 31% to a record ₹5,318 crore and first-half bookings hit a record ₹16,659 crore. The company said some launches were pushed into the third quarter, which could lift bookings later in the year.
What to look for through the day
Analysts say the Nifty needs to hold above 22,630 to keep an upside move towards 23,000 alive. Below that, support sits at 22,372 and then 22,180. Resistance lies at 22,850 and 23,175. For realty, a hold above the 796.60 closing low would signal stabilisation, while a break would point to fresh weakness. Watch whether interest-rate-sensitive stocks follow banks higher, since the PSU banks are leading the buying.
Parameters moving realty stocks
- Crude oil: Brent above $114 stokes inflation fears and the odds of tighter borrowing conditions.
- Bond yields: The US 10-year yield is near 4.97% and India’s 10-year is above 7.4%, which raises funding costs for developers.
- Geopolitics: The West Asia conflict keeps foreign investors in risk-off mode.
- Domestic support: Strong domestic fund inflows and improving Q2 corporate earnings are cushioning the market.
What to wait for
- US Fed decision (October 28): The Fed’s decision will set the tone for global risk appetite and bond yields.
- More Q2 results: DLF and Oberoi have already reported. Dates for Lodha, Prestige, Brigade and others are unconfirmed, with November 14 the last day to report.
- Festive demand: Launch and booking data before Diwali will show whether buyers are returning after a 21% drop in April to June bookings.
- Next RBI meeting: It is scheduled for December 2 to 4.
The outlook
Realty is likely to keep trading on crude oil, yields and the Fed rather than on its own news. A steadier oil price would give the sector room to recover, and developers with strong launch pipelines should be better placed. Until then, expect choppy trade near recent lows.
Also Read: Realty Stocks Slip at Open as Crude Climbs for Fourth Day; IT Leads, Realty Lags
