India’s affordable housing market—already struggling to recover from the pandemic—may be staring at another severe setback. The recent imposition of 50% tariffs by the United States on Indian exports threatens to hit the country’s MSME and SME sectors, which form the backbone of demand for affordable homes.
Affordable Housing Sales Share Plummets
According to ANAROCK Research & Advisory, affordable housing—homes priced at ₹45 lakh or less—accounted for just 18% of total sales in the top seven cities in H1 2025. That translates to 34,565 units out of 1.90 lakh sold. In comparison, this segment commanded a 38% share in 2019, reflecting a steep fall in demand.
The supply side tells a similar story. Affordable housing launches have dropped from 40% of total launches in 2019 to just 12% in H1 2025. The slowdown is significant for a segment catering to around 17.76% of India’s population.
MSMEs in the Crosshairs
MSMEs contribute nearly 30% to India’s GDP and over 45% to exports, employing more than 260 million people in both formal and informal sectors. Industries like textiles, engineering goods, auto components, gems and jewellery, and food processing are heavily labour-intensive and central to the affordable housing buyer base.
The sector’s export footprint has expanded dramatically—228% in four years, from 52,849 exporters in FY 2020-21 to 173,350 in FY 2024-25. However, the new US tariffs could reverse these gains, hitting incomes and job stability among MSME workers.
Expert Warning: “Hope Snuffed Out”
Dr. Prashant Thakur, Executive Director – Research & Advisory, ANAROCK Group, warns that the tariffs could deal a decisive blow to the segment:
“This category of homes priced ₹45 lakh or less was already gravely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and is still struggling to find any semblance of firm ground. Trump’s mercenary tariffs will snuff out even the dimmest ray of hope for this segment.”
Developer and HFC Impact
A prolonged demand slump could force developers to curtail launches due to tighter working capital, further squeezing a segment already battling input cost inflation. Housing finance companies (HFCs) serving this market may face higher loan defaults or a slowdown in disbursements as demand weakens.
The Road Ahead
The future of India’s affordable housing segment may hinge on swift government intervention. Coordinated policies, fiscal safeguards, and buyer-focused support measures will be essential to prevent a deeper crisis. Once the poster child of housing policy and a key pillar of electoral promises, affordable housing now finds itself in uncertain territory.
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