According to the latest ANAROCK Research data, approximately 1,01,675 units worth over ₹1.51 lakh crore were sold in Q1 2026. This marks a notable drop from 1,08,970 units worth ₹1.60 lakh crore in Q4 2025. However, on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, sales still recorded a 9% increase compared to 93,280 units worth ₹1.42 lakh crore in Q1 2025, indicating that the long-term momentum remains intact.

War Impact and Buyer Sentiment Shift

The dip in quarterly sales is being attributed largely to global geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Middle East conflict. The uncertainty has impacted buyer sentiment, increased construction costs, and led to hesitation among investors—especially those from the Middle East who traditionally contribute significantly to Indian real estate.

ANAROCK Chairman Anuj Puri noted that the “war-induced uncertainty, rising oil prices, and increased construction costs” played a crucial role in dampening housing demand, particularly toward the end of the quarter.

MMR & Bengaluru Dominate, Chennai Shows Contrasting Trend

City-wise, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Bengaluru together accounted for 48% of total housing sales in Q1 2026, maintaining their dominance.

• MMR: ~32,800 units sold (↓6% Q-o-Q)
• Bengaluru: ~16,440 units (↓5% Q-o-Q)
• Pune: ~15,300 units (↓10% Q-o-Q)
• NCR: ~15,190 units (↓8% Q-o-Q)
• Hyderabad: ~12,425 units (flat growth)

Interestingly, Chennai recorded the sharpest quarterly drop of 18%, but also posted the highest annual growth of 31%, highlighting a strong recovery trend over the year. Kolkata also saw an 8% quarterly dip.

New Launches Rise, Supply Outpaces Demand

While sales slowed, developers continued to push supply into the market.

• New launches rose 2% Q-o-Q and 26% Y-o-Y
• Total new supply stood at 1,26,265 units in Q1 2026

MMR and Bengaluru together contributed 51% of total new supply, followed by Hyderabad, Pune, and NCR.

Key City Trends:

• Hyderabad: Highest supply jump (↑46% Q-o-Q)
• Bengaluru: ↑7%
• MMR: ↑6%
• Chennai: ↓28%
• NCR: ↓17%
• Pune: ↓9%
• Kolkata: ↓10%

This divergence indicates that developers are betting on long-term demand, even as short-term absorption slows.

Luxury Housing Dominates New Supply

A clear shift towards premium housing continues:

• ₹1.5–2.5 Cr segment: 32% of new supply
• Above ₹2.5 Cr: 20%
• ₹80 lakh–₹1.5 Cr: 25%
• ₹40–80 lakh: 12%
• Below ₹40 lakh: Just 10%

This shows that affordable housing is shrinking, while luxury and upper-mid segments are driving the market.

Unsold Inventory Crosses 6 Lakh Units

With supply exceeding absorption, inventory levels have started rising again:

• Unsold stock increased 4% Q-o-Q and 7% Y-o-Y
• Total inventory stands at over 6.01 lakh units

Bengaluru recorded the highest inventory surge:

• ↑12% Q-o-Q
• ↑24% Y-o-Y

Hyderabad followed with a 7% quarterly rise.

This marks a reversal of the post-pandemic trend, where sales had consistently outpaced supply.

Property Prices Continue to Rise

Despite the sales dip, prices continue their upward trajectory:

• 2% Q-o-Q increase
• 7% Y-o-Y growth across top cities

Top performers:

• NCR: Up to 15% annual increase (driven by luxury supply)
• Bengaluru: 8% rise

The steady price growth indicates that developers are not under pressure to discount yet, despite rising inventory.

What This Means for the Market

The Q1 2026 data presents a mixed picture:

• Short-term caution: Sales slowdown due to global uncertainty
• Long-term strength: Strong annual growth and rising prices
• Emerging risk: Inventory build-up as supply outpaces demand

The biggest structural shift is clear—India’s housing market is becoming increasingly premium-focused, potentially sidelining affordable buyers.

If geopolitical tensions persist and interest rates remain elevated, the coming quarters could see further pressure on demand, even as supply remains robust.

Also Read: Housing Sales Dip 58% Q-o-Q Amid 2nd Wave

The post Sales Down 7%, Inventory Above 6 Lakh: Q1 2026 Real Estate Data Raises Red Flags appeared first on Square Feat India.

The crisis is most evident in the affordable housing segment, where homes priced under ₹1 crore — long the backbone of tier-2 demand — saw a steep 15% drop in volumes, reducing their market share from 77% in 2024 to just 72% in 2025. In contrast, high-end homes above ₹1 crore posted a modest 9% growth, pushing their share up to 28%. This shift toward premiumisation is mirroring the slowdown seen in tier-1 cities, where volumes fall while prices keep climbing.

Thirteen of the 15 cities tracked suffered sales declines of up to 38%, with Visakhapatnam hit hardest. Only Mohali (up 34%) and Lucknow (up 6%) bucked the trend. Gujarat’s four major cities — Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, and Gandhinagar — still dominated, accounting for 63% of total sales, with Ahmedabad alone contributing 33% (51,148 units, down 8%). However, even these strongholds felt the pinch, with Surat down 15%, Vadodara 19%, and Gandhinagar nearly flat at -1%.

New supply is drying up too, declining 6% to 1,36,243 units from 1,45,139 in 2024. Launches of sub-₹1 crore homes fell 5%, while those above ₹1 crore dropped 8%. Mohali saw a massive 108% surge in new launches, and Bhopal rose 66%, but 11 cities faced cuts of up to 57%, led by Bhubaneshwar’s steep plunge.

Samir Jasuja, Founder & CEO of PropEquity, warned of deeper structural issues: “The slowdown in housing sales over the past two years is largely due to a shrinking supply of homes priced below ₹1 crore — a segment that has traditionally driven demand in tier-2 cities. Rising land and construction costs, along with changing buyer aspirations, are pushing new launches into higher price brackets. As a result, tier-2 markets are increasingly mirroring tier-1 cities, where volumes are declining even as prices continue to rise.”

He added that government initiatives — including urban development, better connectivity, and industrial corridors — have fueled price appreciation, making even average homes unaffordable in many tier-2 markets. “This could be a cause for concern, as affordability pressures begin to impact not just premium segments but also affordable and mid-income housing in these cities.”

With Ahmedabad poised to graduate to tier-1 status in 2026 due to its massive scale and demand, the broader tier-2 ecosystem faces mounting headwinds. The data paints a troubling picture of a market sliding into stagnation, where fewer homes are sold, fewer are built, and the dream of affordable homeownership slips further away for millions.

The post India’s Tier-2 Real Estate Market in Freefall: Housing Sales Plunge 10%, Launches Tumble 6% appeared first on Square Feat India.

According to official registration data, Mumbai recorded 11,219 property registrations in January 2026, marking an 8% drop compared to January 2025, when 12,249 units were registered. The slowdown becomes more concerning when compared to recent momentum — registrations plunged 22% from December 2025, when 14,424 properties were registered.

While January often sees seasonal cooling after year-end buying spikes, the scale of the drop suggests weakening transaction activity rather than just routine fluctuation.

Revenue Up, But Activity Down — A Risky Trend

Interestingly, despite fewer registrations, stamp duty collections rose 2% year-on-year to ₹1,012 crore, the highest January revenue in 14 years. This mismatch indicates that the market is increasingly being driven by higher-value property deals rather than broad-based demand.

Industry observers say such a trend signals a structural shift: fewer buyers overall, but more expensive homes changing hands.

Affordable Housing Losing Ground

The most worrying signal for end-users is the decline in registrations of homes priced below ₹1 crore — traditionally the backbone of Mumbai’s housing demand.

• Share of homes under ₹1 crore fell from 47% in Jan 2025 to 42% in Jan 2026
• Homes priced ₹1–2 crore rose from 30% to 33%
• ₹2–5 crore homes increased from 17% to 19%
• Properties above ₹5 crore grew from 6% to 7%

This shift suggests affordability pressures are pushing buyers out of the entry-level segment, forcing them either to delay purchases or move to higher budget brackets.

Market Driven by Mid-Size Homes and Suburbs

Smaller homes continue to dominate, with units under 1,000 sq ft accounting for 83% of registrations, nearly unchanged from last year. Within this, the 500–1,000 sq ft category rose from 43% to 46%, showing that buyers are trying to balance budget constraints with livable space.

Geographically, the market is increasingly concentrated in suburban regions:

• Western suburbs: 57% share
• Central suburbs: 30%
• South Mumbai: 8%
• Central Mumbai: 5%

This concentration further reflects affordability pressures pushing buyers away from premium core-city locations.

A January Pattern — But This Time Different

Historically, January tends to see a drop from December. However, the 22% fall in registrations and 19% drop in revenue month-on-month in 2026 stand out against recent years, raising concerns that buyer sentiment may be softening.

What This Means

The data paints a clear picture:

• Fewer homes are being registered.
• Affordable housing demand is shrinking.
• Market growth is being sustained mainly by premium purchases.

For developers and policymakers, the trend could signal a deeper issue — Mumbai’s housing market may be becoming increasingly inaccessible to middle-class buyers, even as luxury demand remains steady.

If this trajectory continues, industry experts warn that the city could see slower overall sales growth despite rising property values.

Also Read: Mumbai Among World’s Top Prime Housing Markets, Ranks 6th Globally

The post Mumbai Housing Market Slipping: Registration Fall, Rs 1 Cr Homes Disappearing From Market appeared first on Square Feat India.