Dalal Street opens with a bang
Indian markets surged at Thursday’s open on a sharp fall in crude oil and a strong global mood after the US midterm election results. The Sensex opened at 78,911, up 1,610 points or 2.08%, and the Nifty at 24,378, up 417 points or 1.74%. Brent crude slipped below $100 a barrel, a steep drop from about $117 last week, and traders bet on a faster end to the West Asia conflict. The rally has pushed India’s total market value back above ₹500 lakh crore.
Realty joined in. The Nifty Realty index gained about 1.86% in early trade, in a rally where every sectoral index was in the green. Private banks surged more than 2%, autos gained nearly 3%, and the midcap and smallcap indices rose about 1.1% each. All Sensex stocks except Bharti Airtel traded higher.
Why oil matters so much for India
India imports most of the crude it uses, so cheaper oil is a double relief. It eases inflation, which reduces the pressure on the RBI to keep interest rates high, and it helps the rupee. That matters for property stocks because lower rates mean cheaper home loan EMIs for buyers and lower funding costs for developers. Foreign investors, who bought about ₹18,661 crore of Indian shares over five of six sessions until Tuesday, are also returning.
Where realty stands
The Nifty Realty index was near 814 on October 30 and has gained since, with realty among the leading contributors on both Tuesday and Wednesday. It is still well below its 52-week high of 974.50, so there is room to recover if the momentum holds.
What to look for through the day
The Nifty has moved well above its 200-day moving average near 23,904, a long-term trend gauge. Analysts see support at 24,000 to 24,200 and resistance at 24,500 to 24,700. Momentum indicators are strong at 68.55, close to overbought territory, so profit-booking is possible after a gap-up open of this size. Watch whether realty holds its gains through the afternoon and whether crude stays below $100. Some Asian markets were weak, with Kospi down about 4% as traders sold chip stocks, and US index futures came off their highs.
What is moving realty stocks
- Crude oil: Prices under $100 are the biggest tailwind in weeks.
- Foreign flows: Continued FII buying favours large developers such as DLF and Lodha.
- Interest rates: The RBI’s repo rate is 5.50%, so any easing in inflation worries helps home loan EMIs.
- Earnings: Lodha’s profit rose 28% to ₹1,013 crore and Brigade’s 29% to ₹219 crore, while Godrej Properties’ profit fell 62% despite record collections.
What to wait for
- Diwali demand: With Diwali this weekend, launch and booking updates will show whether homebuyers are returning after a 21% drop in bookings in April to June.
- Remaining Q2 results: A few developers are yet to report, with November 14 the last day.
- Next RBI meeting: It is scheduled for December 2 to 4.
- Crude and West Asia: A rebound in oil would quickly reverse the gains.
The outlook
Realty has momentum, cheaper money on the horizon and festive demand ahead. The sector needs oil to stay low and foreign money to keep flowing. After a sharp run, short pauses are likely, so investors should expect volatility along the way.
Also Read: Realty Stocks Open Lower as Crude Near $115 Deepens Dalal Street’s Slide
